The Stochastic Seasonal Behaviour of Natural Gas Prices

Previous studies have explored the seasonal behaviour of commodity prices as a deterministic factor. This paper goes further by proposing a general (n+2m)‐factor model for the stochastic behaviour of commodity prices, which nests the deterministic seasonal model by Sorensen (2002) . We consider seasonality as a stochastic factor, with n non‐seasonal and m seasonal factors. The non‐seasonal factors are as defined in Schwartz (1997) , Schwartz and Smith (2000) and Cortazar and Schwartz (2003) . The seasonal factors are trigonometric components generated by stochastic processes. The model has been applied to the Henry Hub natural gas futures contracts listed by NYMEX. We find that models allowing for stochastic seasonality outperform standard models with deterministic seasonality. We obtain similar results with other energy commodities. Moreover, we find that stochastic seasonality implies that the volatility of futures returns follows a seasonal pattern. This result has important implications in terms of option pricing.     

Is globalisation undermining the welfare state?

This paper analyses the evolution of the welfare states in themajority of OECD countries during the pre-globalisation (1946–80)and globalisation (1980–2000) periods. Our purpose isto find out whether globalisation has produced a convergencetowards a smaller welfare state, funded increasingly by non-mobilefactors such as labour, property and consumption rather thanby mobile factors such as capital. The data presented here challengethe claims about such a convergence, showing that social publicexpenditures and public employment have continued to expandduring the globalisation period in most OECD countries. We alsoshow that the welfare states remain rooted in the politicaltraditions that have governed them.     

Labor Market Analysis and Public Policy: The Case of Morocco

This article uses detailed industry and household data to understandwhy Morocco's labor market performed poorly in 1985–95.The data indicate that marked structural changes and weak demandin the product market were responsible. This article makes twocontributions to the literature. The first is specific: it underscoresthat the demand for labor is a derived demand and that the performanceof the product market is an important determinant of the performanceof the labor market. The second is more general: it demonstratesthat this kind of microeconomic analysis, using data sets thatare often available in developing countries, can inform policydesign.     

Democracy,Cooperation and Business Success: The Case of Mondragón Corporación Cooperativa

Are democracy and success compatible in a business organization? In this work we show how Spain’s Mondragón Corporación Cooperativa (MCC) has made it possible. MCC can be considered a world leader in cooperativism. It is one of the few contemporary business organizations that can be viewed as a democracy, and it represents a unique experience in the use of democratic and participatory methods in management. MCC has developed its own Management Model based on its cooperative principles, on modern management practices and on the cutting edge experiences of the most advanced companies. In this work we analyze the key elements of MCC’s democratic management model, developed around aspects such as corporate culture, organizational structure or human resources. We also look at the case of Irizar, a component cooperative of MCC internationally known for its successful management model. Finally, we outline some practical implications of introducing democracy into organizations, drawn from the experiences of MCC and Irizar.     

Breaking new ground: base-of-pyramid service research

Two-thirds of the world's population lives in poverty, a global problem that researchers from a wide variety of disciplines study. Yet there is a fundamental lack of service research pertaining to this huge segment of society, commonly known as the base of the pyramid. This segment offers a rich source of information that could help break new ground in service research, by exploring services in contexts in which its current concepts, models, theories, and generalizations might not apply the same way. This article starts by exploring key contributions in base of the pyramid literature and identifying the main perspectives from which extant knowledge has developed. By revising existing service research priorities to identify useful intersections with base of the pyramid perspectives, this study offers new grounds deriving five research streams that reflect the integration of base of the pyramid research perspectives with service research priorities. Finally, this article details the emerging area of base of the pyramid service research using one of those research priorities, namely, transformative service research, in an effort to specify the relevant objectives, scopes, differences, and similarities and thereby identify common grounds for future service research at the base of the pyramid.     

The value of the ‘swap’ feature in equity default swaps

When equity default swap (EDS) contracts were first included in a rated collateralized debt obligation (CDO) deal, some critics doubted the originality of the product. In fact, EDSs are equivalent to already existing binary barrier options on equity, except the premium is not paid upfront, but over time, and conditional on the trigger event not having occurred. Therefore, as opposed to existing options, the buyer of an EDS: (1) postpones payment for protection, and (2) purchases not only protection against a sharp drop in the price of equity, but also the right to cease payments in case the barrier is hit. This paper derives the closed-form pricing formula for equity default swap spreads under the Black–Scholes assumptions, and then quantifies the fraction of the EDS spread actually due to the ‘swap’ feature of the contract for plausible parameter values. It is found that the extra spread due to the swap nature of EDSs is economically significant only for high volatility, high trigger levels, and long time-to-maturity. The impact of interest rates on the value of the ‘swap’ feature is almost exclusively due to the postponement of payments.     

The Importance of Quality,Satisfaction, Trust,and Image in Relation to Rural Tourist Loyalty

In the past decade, tourism firms have become aware of the great benefits of maintaining a solid base of loyal customers. Because rural tourism is a relatively new phenomenon in some countries, the main antecedent of tourism loyalty remains infrequently studied in rural lodgings. In this work, a structural equations model is explored, with PLS technique, giving relevance to the interrelationships among image, quality, satisfaction, and trust and among these variables and the tourists' behavior variables. Instruments are identified and exploratory research was undertaken among rural tourists of the main rural lodgings in two border regions of Spain and Portugal. The results confirm image as a direct antecedent of perceived quality, satisfaction, trust, and loyalty for rural tourism, too. The analysis also confirmed that quality has a positive influence on satisfaction and loyalty, and trust has a positive influence on loyalty. Image is shown as a key factor to rural lodging managers. This study may help rural tourism managers to develop and implement effective relationship marketing strategies.     

Institutional distance among country influences and environmental performance standardization in multinational enterprises

This research compares and contrasts the findings in Aguilera-Caracuel et al. (2013) with the outcomes of applying fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis (fsQCA) — a methodological strategy that gathers quantitative and qualitative information to explain complexity at the case level and generality across cases. Using the same sample of 128 multinational enterprises (MNEs) with headquarters and subsidiaries based in the USA, Canada, France, and Spain, we identify a set of relevant configurations of causes and conditions to explain environmental performance standardization. By avoiding separate treatments for each variable, which is typical in multiple regression analysis (MRA), we overcome prior limitations and propose a new way of understanding this phenomenon. In summary, our results significantly reinforce and complement the previous results.     

Interest rates,expectations and the credibility of the Bank of Spain

The purpose of the paper is to pinpoint the date of the change of monetary policy regime which occurred in Spain during the year 1984, when it moved away from controlling monetary aggregates towards interest rate targeting. The most likely date for the change is estimated and, surprisingly, there is evidence that agents learned about the new intermediate target quite rapidly.A week after the change, the term structure of interest rates showed how market agents attributed much more informational content to interest rate changes than they had previously. Two types of transitions are tried: a one-step and a gradual logistic swithing function.